Generalized Additive Models on Estimation of Newbuilding Prices and Lead Times for Bulk Carriers
C. Yan (TU Delft - Mechanical Engineering)
Jeroen Pruyn – Mentor (TU Delft - Ship Design, Production and Operations)
R.G. Hekkenberg – Graduation committee member (TU Delft - Ship Design, Production and Operations)
WWA van Blokland – Graduation committee member (TU Delft - Transport Engineering and Logistics)
René Delfos – Graduation committee member (TU Delft - Support Process and Energy)
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Abstract
When placing orders of new vessels, shipowners are most concerned about two things: how much they need to pay and how long they need to wait, and the estimation of newbuilding prices and lead times for new vessels is important to both shipowners and shipbuilders. This thesis introduces the generalized additive model (GAM) as the specific regression method, explains what factors are influential to newbuilding prices and lead times of bulk carriers, and illustrates how to use GAM to construct the estimation models