IN-situ Debris Inventorisation near the Geostationary Orbit (INDIGO): a feasibility study

Abstract

Recent launches of satellite constellations in the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) region have increased the collision probability of existing debris objects with active satellites. Monitoring the trajectories of these debris objects is crucial for Space Situational Awareness (SSA) to prevent the creation of more debris due to unwanted collisions. Much focus is on the LEO regime, with little awareness of the higher Geostationary orbit (GEO) debris population. To date, the explosion of the Russian Ekran 2 satellite in 1978 as well as the disintegration of the Titan IIIC Trans-stage in 1992, have been recorded. These incidents have increased the number of small-sized debris objects in GEO. More unnoticed fragmentation events have been speculated to have occurred, which pose a significant risk of collisions and damage to all weather and communication satellites in use today. The NASA Debris Office confirms that current ground-based radar or optical sensing methods can only be performed for objects of size 1 m and larger, leaving a gap in the precise orbit determination of sub-meter-sized objects in GEO. Moreover, limited observations and atmospheric losses hinder the quality of orbit determination, thus limiting present ground-based SSA techniques. Attempting to bridge this gap in current space surveillance and tracking methods is the objective of this thesis. It evaluates the feasibility of using space-based sensing methods to enhance SSA in the GEO regime. In this research, a satellite in a sub-GEO orbit is deployed to collect in situ radar measurements, which are processed to determine the orbit of a single object in GEO. Different satellite geometries (altitudes and inclinations) and measurement types such as range, range-rate, and direction (azimuth and elevation angles) and combinations thereof have been analysed. A simple grid search optimisation has been performed to assess the feasibility of such a technique and propose a possible favourable observation configuration, which improves the quality and accuracy of orbit determination. It also analyses the uncertainties in the debris state for future epochs to assess the errors in orbit prediction. The limitations of the geometry and measurement model are identified in this study and provided as recommendations and suggestions for further research. INDIGO is hence a feasibility study or a proof-of-concept of space-based debris state observations in GEO. It can be considered a stepping stone towards inventorying the small-sized GEO debris population catalogue and exploring enhanced SSA techniques in the future.