Exploratory modeling for analyzing coupled human-natural systems under uncertainty

Abstract

Modeling is a crucial approach for understanding the past and exploring the future of coupled human-natural systems. However, uncertainty in various forms challenges inferences from modeling results. Model-based support for decision-making has increasingly adopted an emerging exploratory approach. This approach addresses uncertainty explicitly through systematically exploring the implications of modeling assumptions, aiming to enhance the robustness of inferences from models. Despite a variety of applications, the extent and the way(s) that exploratory modeling can deal with the challenges that arise from the uncertainty and complexity of decision-making with stakeholders has not yet been systematically framed. We address this gap in two ways. First, we present a taxonomy of the ways that exploratory modeling can be used to inform robust inferences in coupled human-natural systems by mapping the technical capabilities of this approach in relation to the diversity of past applications. This subsequently guides an investigation of the practical benefits and challenges of these capabilities in handling uncertainty and complexity. Second, we discuss different ways for integrating genuine stakeholder engagement into exploratory modeling through transdisciplinary research. Finally we outline some priorities for future expansion of this research area.