Cobalt for the Energy Transition
Resilience of Supply Chain and Vulnerable Networks
J.I. Pattany (TU Delft - Technology, Policy and Management)
José Mogollón – Mentor (Universiteit Leiden)
Yingjie Fan – Mentor (Universiteit Leiden)
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Abstract
Cobalt is an essential component in the energy transition. If you are currently reading this abstract on a tablet, smart phone, or laptop the end-use of cobalt is right in front of you. Consumption of cobalt is expected to increase about 40% between 2021 and 2015, demand mainly being attributed to Electric Vehicles and Batteries. Therefore, for a successful transition to renewable energies and zero-emission mobility it is important to have a resilient supply chain of cobalt products. This research contributes to the knowledge of cobalt research by analyzing weighted bilateral trade data using an ecological perspective for cobalt products needed for the energy transition, considering products involved in the upstream and downstream of the supply chain. Previous research has mainly focused on products at the supply stage, and this paper is the first to use Ecological Network Analysis to analyze resilience of cobalt at all supply chain stages over the past nine-years. Ecological Network Analysis was used as it considers that network structures have implications for the resilience of a network, and the dual perspectives of redundancy and efficiency are measured to analyze resilience. The results of this research have shown that most cobalt products for the energy transition have redundant networks, making them less susceptible to supply chain shocks; it has identified products of concern using the results from the ENA; and it identifies the major importers/exporters/bridge nodes for the products of concern and considers how strong their governance is, as governance can affect trade. One important product of concern are metals in the form of wire that are used in solar energy, this trade network is extremely vulnerable to supply chain shocks. This can cause issues as there is solar expansion taking place at a large scale. This study also found products of concern at the process stage (refined cobalt) and the manufacturing stage (for biomass energy). This study aims to give a more complete picture as to what resilience has looked like and what can potentially happen if networks follow their historical trend.