Using Fuzzy Logic Modelling to Simulate Farmers Decision Making on Diversification and Integration in the Mekong, Vietnam

Abstract

To reveal farmers¿ motives for on-farm diversification
and integration of farming components in the
Mekong Delta, Vietnam, we developed a fuzzy logic model
(FLM) using a 10-step approach. Farmers¿ decision-making
was mimicked in a three-layer hierarchical architecture
of fuzzy inference systems, using data of 72 farms. The
model includes three variables for family motives of
diversification, six variables related to component integration,
next to variables for the production factors and for
farmers¿ appreciation of market prices and know-how on
10 components. To obtain a good classification rate of the
less frequent activities, additional individual fine-tuning
was necessary after general model calibration. To obtain
the desired degree of sensitivity to each variable, it was
necessary to use up to five linguistic values for some of the
input and output variables in the intermediate hierarchical
layers. Model¿s sensitivity to motivational variables
determining diversification and integration was of the same
magnitude as its sensitivity to market prices and farmers¿
know-how of the activities, but less than its sensitivity to labour, capital and land endowment. Modelling to support
strategic decision-making seems too elaborate for individual
farms, but FLM will be useful to integrate farmers¿
opinions in strategic decision-making at higher hierarchical
levels.