Towards a Fair Zero-Emission Zone

Abstract

As cities pursue ambitions to become emission-free, low-emission zones (LEZs) for passenger cars are likely to become more restrictive over time and may evolve into zero-emission zones (ZEZs), where fossil-fuel vehicles are no longer permitted. While such restrictive policies aim to accelerate decarbonisation, they simultaneously raise distributive concerns, as access to urban space becomes subject to compliance. This research examines under what conditions a ZEZ for passenger cars can be implemented in a socially equitable manner in Amsterdam, and which groups are most likely to bear the associated burdens. To address this question, a conceptual framework grounded in egalitarian and sufficientarian justice perspectives is combined with empirical survey data. Accessibility is used as the central benchmark for evaluating equity outcomes. The analysis considers car dependence by trip purpose, perceived feasibility of switching to an electric vehicle (EV), willingness to adopt alternative modes, and an empirically constructed adaptation typology. The findings indicate that car dependence is primarily activity-specific and concentrated in social, care-related, and household-related trips rather than commuting. While 74.5\% of car-owning respondents are potentially adaptable to a ZEZ, 11.0\% are highly policy-dependent and 14.5\% are structurally insufficient, facing a tangible risk of accessibility loss. Vulnerability follows clear socio-demographic gradients: lower-income, lower-educated, and older residents are overrepresented among those facing structural constraints, with indications of spatial clustering in districts further from the city centre. The results suggest that a passenger-car ZEZ in Amsterdam may be feasible for many residents, but that its social equity depends on the conditions under which it is implemented. Its legitimacy rests on preserving a minimum level of accessibility and preventing existing accessibility gaps between socio-demographic groups from widening. A gradual and transparent implementation strategy, an initially limited zone, targeted support for groups at risk of accessibility loss, viable alternatives to private car use before enforcement, and continuous monitoring therefore emerge as key conditions. The study demonstrates that restrictive climate policy is not distributionally neutral and that equity outcomes depend fundamentally on policy design and accompanying measures.