Quantitative risk assessment of CO₂ transport by pipelines-A review of uncertainties and their impacts

Abstract

A systematic assessment, based on an extensive literature review, of the impact of gaps and uncertainties on the results of quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) for CO2 pipelines is presented. Sources of uncertainties that have been assessed are: failure rates, pipeline pressure, temperature, section length, diameter, orifice size, type and direction of release, meteorological conditions, jet diameter, vapour mass fraction in the release and the dose-effect relationship for CO2. A sensitivity analysis with these parameters is performed using release, dispersion and impact models. The results show that the knowledge gaps and uncertainties have a large effect on the accuracy of the assessed risks of CO2 pipelines. In this study it is found that the individual risk contour can vary between 0 and 204m from the pipeline depending on assumptions made. In existing studies this range is found to be between <1m and 7.2km. Mitigating the relevant risks is part of current practice, making them controllable. It is concluded that QRA for CO2 pipelines can be improved by validation of release and dispersion models for high-pressure CO2 releases, definition and adoption of a universal dose-effect relationship and development of a good practice guide for QRAs for CO2 pipelines.