Estimating actual evapotranspiration of soil-vegetation system by combining a physics-based model and machine learning

Abstract

A synergistic integration of physics-based and data-driven approaches has emerged as promising research field for terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) estimation, enabling robust modeling of land-atmosphere interactions. This study proposes a hybrid model by integrating machine learning (ML)-based canopy surface resistance (r_s,c) estimation into the Shuttleworth-Wallace (S-W) dual-source scheme under the ETMonitor framework, replacing traditional physics-based r_s,c parameterization. Three ML algorithms, Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Regression Tree (GBRT) and Deep Neural Network (DNN) were tested in the hybrid model. A reference dataset of r_s,c was derived by inverting S-W dual-source model with in-situ flux measurements. The model was trained on 179 global flux tower sites and independently validated on 45 sites. Three full ML-based models based on DNN, GBRT and RF, were also developed to estimate ET directly for comparison. The DNN-integrated hybrid model outperformed the original physics-based model, with Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) increasing from 0.7 to 0.84 and coefficient of determination (R²) increasing from 0.66 to 0.72. The three full ML models showed comparable performance to the hybrid models. Notably, the physics-ML hybrid framework balances physical interpretability with data-driven efficiency, minimizing reliance on prior knowledge and avoiding over-parameterization.