Adaptation: Towards Security in the Face of Instability
A study of adaptation strategies using a multiple regression model with interaction terms for smallholder food security in Tanzania
Maarten Schut (TU Delft - Technology, Policy and Management)
José Mogollón – Mentor (Universiteit Leiden)
Roos van der Haer – Graduation committee member (Universiteit Leiden)
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Abstract
In this thesis, national survey data and a historical weather model are combined in order to explore the relationship between weather shocks and food insecurity in rural Tanzania. The effects of existing climate change adaptation strategies on this relationship are explored through multiple regression analysis in order to ascertain how small-scale farmers in Tanzania may prepare for the worsening climate. Household data on agricultural practices, diets and geographical locations based on survey data were linked to local climate data from a global historic weather model. A composite measure of household weather shock exposure based on exposure to periods of unusually low precipitation and periods of unusually low temperatures was used in conjunction with the household Food Consumption Score to measure the relationships between climate adaptation strategies, weather shocks and food insecurity. This analysis takes advantage of the large volume of survey data from the Living Standards Measurement Study - Integrated Surveys on Agriculture Project and allows the measurement of the statistical performance of adaptation practices while accounting for control variables. The study finds that the interaction terms of livestock diversity and intercropping with weather shocks do significantly correlate with a reduced impact on food security. Furthermore, a reduction in livestock diversity appears to further help maintain household food security in the face of adverse weather conditions, likely signifying that households compensate for these conditions through the slaughter or sale of livestock. Livestock thus appears to function as a sort of insurance against extreme weather impacts on food security. These practices represent actionable strategies that smallholders with limited available resources can utilize to reduce vulnerabilities in the face of a changing climate.