Assessing the feasibility and scalability of short-haul battery-electric aviation in Europe

Abstract

Battery-electric aviation represents a promising pathway to substantially reduce the overall climate impact of short-haul air transport. This includes complete elimination of both in-flight CO₂ and non-CO₂ effects. Nevertheless, considerable debate and uncertainty remain regarding whether the technology can achieve meaningful scale and deliver a significant impact at continental level. Previous studies, however, have typically examined technical, economic, or environmental feasibility aspects in relative isolation, often focusing on specific routes or individual aircraft types. This thesis addresses these gaps through an integrated framework that couples machine-learning-based demand forecasting, algorithmic network design, uncertainty modelling, and sector-wide GHG mitigation assessment under realistic gravimetric battery energy density constraints. A custom Python-based software tool with an interactive Streamlit dashboard enables evaluation of any combination of European airports and announced electric aircraft types, as well as a fully customisable aircraft model for extensive sensitivity and scenario analysis. Key results show that the XGBoost model predicts baseline demand on unserved routes with high accuracy (R² = 0.79, SMAPE = 18.7%). Electric aircraft could induce approximately 25.1% additional demand through reduced operating costs and higher willingness-to-pay for zero-emission flights. Under projected near- to mid-term solid-state battery pack energy densities (356–480 Wh/kg), 13.8–22.3% of European aviation sector CO₂ emissions could be avoided. Network design identifies an intra-European early-phase hub-and-spoke configuration requiring charging at only 15 strategic hubs plus two connectors, while maximising electrifiable passenger demand. The study shows that battery-electric aviation outperforms competing technologies on short-haul routes in terms of cost, emissions, and energy efficiency. However, achieving the full 22.3% decarbonisation potential requires electrifying more than 50% of all European flights, which translates into challenges, as the R&O analysis of this study shows. Collaborative action as well as incentives and targeted policy support will be essential and will require a shift from Europe’s rather isolated focus on SAF. The network configurations presented in this study provide a strong starting point for collaborative development, while recommendations for future research include realistic decarbonisation pathways integrating the phase-out of conventional aircraft and the study of high-impact policy measures.