The role of DSSs in decision-making processes characterized by time pressure, uncertainty and dynamism: an agent-based modeling approach

Abstract

The effect of using decision support systems in decision-making processes characterized by time pressure, uncertainty, and dynamism is still very limited and debated among researchers. By utilizing a case study that concerns the employment of a DSS to assist the procedures of intercepting fugitives undertaken by the Dutch National Police, this thesis investigates the difference in the personal efficiency and productivity of the practitioners (the decision time) between the current practices and the model-supported ones. An agent-based model is thus implemented which mirrors the procedures of intercepting fugitives in the two situations. The results highlight that, in contexts of time pressure, uncertainty, and dynamism, the use of the DSS does not always result in faster decision-making processes. This highly depends on how the DSS is implemented, especially in relation to the level of experience of the practitioners with the activities at stake and the level of dynamism and complexity of the decision-making process. Moreover, it is important to guarantee flexibility in the design of the system, and provide the users with the most relevant information to make the decision, so that the time needed to gather and process the information is minimized, while still guaranteeing an appropriate level of accuracy of the information displayed. Finally, the results show that involving the practitioners in the design of the system can improve the decision-making time, since it reduces the discussion between the actors, but is less relevant than the time needed to gather and process the information (which is a very critical aspect in contexts of time pressure), especially for those who work in contact with the system.