Case Study: Zutphen
Estimates of levee system reliability
K. Roscoe (TU Delft - Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk)
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Abstract
Estimates of levee system
reliability can conflict with experience and intuition. For example, a very
high failure probability may be computed while no evidence of failure has been
observed, or a very low failure probability when signs of failure have been
detected. This conflict results in skepticism about the computed failure
probabilities and an (understandable) unwillingness to make important management
decisions based upon them. Bayesian networks (BNs) are useful in these circumstances
because they allow us to use observations to improve our reliability estimates quantitatively.