Adaptive Technology Roadmapping for Decision-Making Under Uncertainty in Hydrogen Import Infrastructure

Abstract

Under the EU’s climate-neutrality ambition, green hydrogen is expected to play a key role in decarbonising hard-to-abate sectors. Yet the development of international hydrogen supply chains is progressing slowly and remains highly uncertain, shaped by volatile policy support, immature markets, evolving certification regimes, and interdependent infrastructure investments across borders. Technology Roadmapping is widely used to coordinate such long-term, multi-actor transitions by sequencing actions and milestones over time. In practice, however, roadmaps are often applied in a relatively static way: they depict a preferred development trajectory but provide limited guidance on how commitments should adapt when critical assumptions no longer hold or when dependencies across the value chain do not co-evolve.

To address this limitation, the thesis integrates Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) into Technology Roadmapping, creating a new approach termed Adaptive Technology Roadmapping (ATR). DAPP contributes explicit adaptivity through the concepts of pathways, decision points, adaptation tipping points, signposts, triggers, contingency actions, and sell-by dates. Combined with the layered and time-based structure of Technology Roadmapping, ATR enables actors to plan and coordinate system development while retaining the ability to revise commitments as conditions evolve.

The approach is demonstrated through a qualitative case study of the Canada–Netherlands corridor. Data collection combines semi-structured interviews with key actor groups and supporting desk research. The dataset is analysed in ATLAS.ti using the Gioia method to derive themes capturing corridor dynamics, vulnerabilities, and opportunities. These findings inform a four-step ATR procedure: (1) defining system scope and success criteria; (2) developing an evidence base and a default plan with adaptation tipping points; (3) constructing a roadmap that maps alternative pathways, milestones, and decision points; and (4) enabling an adaptation plan by specifying signposts, triggers, and contingency actions linked to decision points.

Applying ATR shows that hydrogen import corridors require adaptive, systemic planning because progress is constrained by mutual dependencies, particularly around long-term offtake, permitting and social acceptance, certification eligibility, financeability, and the timely availability of import and hinterland infrastructure. Rather than optimising for a single end-state, ATR supports staging commitments through phased and modular scaling, while making explicit when delaying, downscaling, switching configurations, or stopping becomes the better option. The thesis concludes that ATR increases the decision relevance of roadmaps for long-lead, high-commitment hydrogen infrastructure by linking strategic actions to monitored conditions and predefined adaptation logic, thereby helping narrow the gap between hydrogen corridor ambitions and implementation under uncertainty.