Coastal sea level changes, observed and projected during the 20th and 21st century

Journal article (2016)

Authors

M Carson Hamburg University of Technology
A. Köhl Hamburg University of Technology
D Stammer Hamburg University of Technology
A. B. A. Slangen CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship
C.A. Katsman Environmental Fluid Mechanics - CEG
R. S. W. van de Wal Universiteit Utrecht
J. Church CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship
N. White CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship
Research Group
Environmental Fluid Mechanics (CEG) (TU Delft)
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Published Date

01-01-2016

Language

English

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Faculty

Civil Engineering & Geosciences

Department

Hydraulic Engineering

Research Group

Environmental Fluid Mechanics

Abstract

Timeseries of observed and projected sea level changes for the 20th and 21st century are analyzed at various coastal locations around the world that are vulnerable to climate change. Observed time series are from tide gauges and altimetry, as well as from reconstructions over the last 50 years. CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean model output of regional sea-level and associated uncertainty estimates are merged with scenario-independent contributions from GIA and dynamic ice to provide time series of coastal sea-level projections to the end of the 21st century. We focus on better quantifying the regional departure of coastal sea level rise from its global average, identify the reasons for the regional departure, and quantify the reasons for the uncertainty in these regional projections. Many of these coastal sea level projections are lower than the global mean change in sea level due to glacial isostatic adjustment, and gravitational changes from loss of land ice and terrestrially stored ground water. In most coastal regions, local deviations from the global mean vary up to ±20 cm which, depending on the location, differ substantially in their underlying causes.