An Integrated Quantitative Risk Assessment Method for Urban Underground Utility Tunnels

Journal article (2021)

Authors

Jiansong Wu China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing)
Yiping Bai China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing)
Weipeng Fang China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing)
Rui Zhou Tsinghua University
G.L.L.M.E. Reniers Safety and Security Science - TPM
Nima Khakzad Toronto Metropolitan University
Research Group
Safety and Security Science (TPM) (TU Delft)
Bayesian network Risk assessment Delphi method Dynamic hazard scenario identification Urban underground utility tunnels
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Published Date

2021

Language

English

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Faculty

Technology, Policy and Management

Department

Values Technology and Innovation

Research Group

Safety and Security Science

Abstract

With the rapid urbanization, urban underground utility tunnels have seen fast growth in China in the past few years. Urban utility tunnels can house various kinds of city ‘lifelines’ such as natural gas pipeline, heat pipeline, water supply system, sewer pipeline, electricity and telecommunication cables, which are of great significance to guarantee essential flows of energy, information and logistics for urban life. If a utility tunnel accident occurs, the consequences could be catastrophic. Risk assessment has been an important tool to examine the safety performance of industrial facilities and the effectiveness of safety measures. In this study, an integrated model based on dynamic hazard scenario identification (DHSI), Bayesian network (BN) modeling and risk analysis is proposed for risk assessment of urban utility tunnels. The worst-case scenario of urban utility tunnel accidents is identified by DHSI and modelled by BN. Meanwhile, risk analysis is conducted based on the results of BN considering casualties and economic losses. Finally, the integrated method is applied to evaluate the risk level of a real-world utility tunnel. The results indicate that the integrated quantitative risk assessment framework is an alternative and effective tool for safety assessment and land-use planning of urban utility tunnels.