Long-term impact of rail maintenance works on passenger patterns

Abstract

The rail system plays a critical role in the accessibility of the Netherlands. However, train traffic is sometimes suspended due to required rail maintenance, resulting in a train-free period, referred to as a rail possession. Recently, interest has grown in the potential long-term effects of these possessions on passenger patterns. Train passengers might find a suitable alternative during the maintenance and continue to use it after the possession has ended. This has negative consequences for the environment and the revenue of the railway operator. This thesis investigates whether there is indeed a long-term effect of rail possessions on passenger patterns, and if so, which possession characteristics influence it. This is done by comparing individual passenger patterns before and after a possession, using pseudonymous AFC data. 23 possessions in the main rail network of the Netherlands, where NS operates, are investigated. It is found for long-duration possessions (i.e. at least eight days) that passengers make fewer trips than expected in the six months after the possession. Moreover, it is found that business passengers decrease their travel frequency, but gradually return to their pre-possession travel pattern as time progresses. Besides, no changes in route or station choice are observed, but this can be caused by the local context of the investigated cases. In addition, it is found that low-frequent student and consumer passengers are less severely affected by long-duration possessions than other passenger groups. Other possession characteristics than the duration are not found to influence structural changes in travel patterns. This is, however, likely caused by the absence of permanent effects for most investigated cases, which prevented an adequate analysis of these possession properties. It is recommended for future research to investigate more long-duration possessions; to determine the threshold between short- and long-duration possessions more precisely, and to determine the effect of other possession characteristics. Moreover, splitting long maintenance periods into multiple shorter possessions is expected to reduce the long-term effects. Finally, railway operators should focus more on the benefits of maintenance in the communication to passengers for long maintenance work, to reduce the negative, structural effects.