Scalable model districts for geographic load forecasting in the distribution grid
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Abstract
The electrical peak demand in the Netherlands is likely to increase due to renewable energy technologies, and create a higher load demand for distribution transformers. Two technologies that increase the peak demand are solar-PV and heat pumps, for which the deployment on the distribution grid differs largely between geographical areas. In this research 18 model districts are constructed that are representative for the Dutch build environment connected to the low-voltage network, which are applied in a case study to determine the future load demand of the distribution transformers. The results indicate a larger overloading of distribution transformers in 2040 in the village and rural accessible districts, compared to the more urban district types. However, in two of the three scenarios, most transformers have sufficient capacity to cope with the energy transition. The outcomes can be used to construct regional approaches in maintaining the most cost effective operation of the distribution transformers.