Re-entry risk analysis
Comparison of Design for Demise strategies for the RFA ONE kick-stage
A.O. Ehrenberger (TU Delft - Aerospace Engineering)
M.C. Naeije – Mentor (TU Delft - Aerospace Engineering)
D. Dirkx – Graduation committee member (TU Delft - Aerospace Engineering)
W.J.F. Simons – Graduation committee member (TU Delft - Aerospace Engineering)
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Abstract
The increased number of spacecraft in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) has led to a rise in the number of re-entries into Earth’s atmosphere. This is expected to increase further in the future as the commercialization of space continues to grow. The re-entry of spacecraft poses a risk to humans on the ground and in the air. To mitigate this risk, a number of strategies to increase the demisability of spacecraft have been proposed. The term Design for Demise (D4D) has been used to describe these strategies. This thesis took the RFA ONE kickstage as a case study and quantitatively evaluated the effect of two opposing D4D strategies: increasing and decreasing the fragmentation during re-entry. The risk to humans on various classes of ships and aircraft has been evaluated. The results show that increasing the fragmentation of the kickstage does not reduce the risk posed to humans. Minimizing the fragmentation of the kickstage minimizes the collective risk posed to humans.
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