New Space Revolution: Prospective Launchers for Small Satellites, Challenges for the Micro Launch Industry and its Implications for SmallSat Manufacturers

Abstract

This thesis delves into the dynamic and evolving micro launch industry, integral to the broader space sector's shift from traditional operations to the innovative and commercial-oriented New Space paradigm. The primary focus is on the implications of these trends for small satellite (SmallSat) manufacturers, who are pivotal players in this ecosystem. The study is structured around four key research questions: identifying the main factors behind the micro launch industry's market bubble, understanding the primary drivers and challenges within the sector, benchmarking micro launchers' value propositions against competitive solutions, and assessing the impact of these trends on SmallSat manufacturers' investment decisions in research and development (R&D).

The research employs a qualitative methodology, combining a comprehensive literature review, desk research, and semi-structured interviews with industry experts. The literature review establishes the theoretical framework, highlighting the transition from Old Space to New Space, characterized by increased private sector involvement, innovative business models, and new financing methods. The desk research provides up-to-date industry data, while the interviews offer practical insights and expert perspectives, enriching the analysis.

Key findings reveal that the micro launch industry's perceived market bubble is driven by speculative investor behavior, cognitive biases, and high liquidity from private investments, leading to inflated asset prices and unrealistic market expectations. The study identifies democratized access to space and substantial institutional support as significant growth drivers, while high entry barriers, competition from established players, and regulatory challenges pose substantial hurdles.

The benchmarking analysis indicates that while micro launchers offer unique value propositions such as dedicated and flexible launch services, they face intense competition from larger launch vehicles and alternative solutions like rideshare missions and orbital transfer vehicles. This competitive landscape underscores the necessity for continuous innovation and strategic agility among micro launch companies.

For SmallSat manufacturers, the evolving trends in the micro launch industry have profound implications. Reduced launch costs and increased access to space shift the focus from minimizing satellite mass to optimizing mission performance and reliability. However, the uncertainty surrounding the micro launch sector highlights the importance of strategic planning and diversification in investment decisions.

The thesis concludes with strategic insights for industry stakeholders, emphasizing the need for collaborative efforts, innovative approaches, and effective policy frameworks to navigate the complexities of the micro launch market. These findings contribute to the broader understanding of market dynamics within high-tech industries and offer practical guidance for sustaining growth and competitiveness in the rapidly evolving space sector.