Modeling the Impact of Hydrogen Adaptation Obstacles on Hydrogen-Powered Flights by 2050

Abstract

This research investigates how the obstacles to hydrogen adaptation impact the projected distribution and frequency of hydrogen-powered flights in Europe by 2050. The prioritized obstacles in this research are economic constraints and airport capacity limitations. For the economic constraints two different cost scenarios are analysed, one where hydrogen-aircraft just become competitive with respect to conventional aircraft, and one where hydrogen-aircraft are favoured with respect to conventional aircraft. When considering airport capacity limi- tations, for example due to availability of green hydrogen and infrastructure modifications, a constraint is put on the maximum amount of hydrogen-powered aircraft allowed in the network. In this research, a European Hub & Spoke network for an airline is analysed. In the scenario where hydrogen-powered aircraft are favoured, the variable cost of conventional aircraft is significantly increased in the future. Then, more hydrogen-powered aircraft are de- ployed and these are particularly medium-range hydrogen-powered aircraft. Moreover, under different traffic growth scenarios, the higher the traffic growth, the more routes are flown by hydrogen-powered aircraft. When comparing these two results, the varying of the variable costs of future aircraft is more sensitive to the deployment of hydrogen-powered aircraft than the sensitivity of the traffic growth. When considering the implementation of a fleet constraint for hydrogen-powered aircraft, only in a scenario with high traffic growth from 2025-2050 and a favorable cost for hydrogen-powered aircraft, the capacity constraint is met. Across all scenar- ios, despite varying conditions, the airline’s profit remains reasonably consistent and almost all demand is captured. This study emphasizes that hydrogen-powered aircraft adaptation is highly sensitive to cost dynamics. At policy level regulatory entities should implement mechanisms that create financial incentives for hydrogen adoption and Original Equipment Manufacturers should prioritize cost-efficient design.