Machine Learning for Reservoir Quality Prediction in Chlorite-Bearing Sandstone Reservoirs

Abstract

We have developed a generalisable machine learning framework for reservoir quality prediction in deeply buried clastic systems. Applied to the Lower Jurassic deltaic sandstones of the Tilje Formation (Halten Terrace, North Sea), the approach integrates sedimentological facies modelling with mineralogical and petrophysical prediction in a single workflow. Using supervised Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) models, we classify reservoir facies, predict permeability directly from standard wireline log parameters and estimate the abundance of porosity-preserving grain coating chlorite (gamma ray, neutron porosity, caliper, photoelectric effect, bulk density, compressional and shear sonic, and deep resistivity). Model development and evaluation employed stratified K-fold cross-validation to preserve facies proportions and mineralogical variability across folds, supporting robust performance assessment and testing generalisability across a geologically heterogeneous dataset. Core description, point count petrography, and core plug analyses were used for ground truthing. The models distinguish chlorite-associated facies with up to 80% accuracy and estimate permeability with a mean absolute error of 0.782 log(mD), improving substantially on conventional regression-based approaches. The models also enable prediction, for the first time using wireline logs, grain-coating chlorite abundance with a mean absolute error of 1.79% (range 0–16%). The framework takes advantage of diagnostic petrophysical responses associated with chlorite and high porosity, yielding geologically consistent and interpretable results. It addresses persistent challenges in characterising thinly bedded, heterogeneous intervals beyond the resolution of traditional methods and is transferable to other clastic reservoirs, including those considered for carbon storage and geothermal applications. The workflow supports cost-effective, high-confidence subsurface characterisation and contributes a flexible methodology for future work at the interface of geoscience and machine learning.