Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Dynamics of Sandy Nearshore Inlet Systems
A case study: Katama Bay, and Santa Lucia Estuary
A. Monclus Abadal (TU Delft - Civil Engineering & Geosciences)
Stefan G. J. Aarninkhof – Mentor
J.A. Hopkins – Graduation committee member
S.G. Pearson – Graduation committee member
J Bosboom – Graduation committee member
Henk Schuttelaars – Graduation committee member
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Abstract
Sandy barriers comprise 12% of coastlines around the world, and most of these barriers enclose tidal bays and lagoons. These systems accommodate human settlements vulnerable to climate change, which offer enough economic, social, and environmental utility to require further research on the impact of climate change and subsequent best management practices.
The present work aims to analyze how climate change impacts the hydrodynamics and morphodynamics of two barrier inlet systems: Katama Bay (United States of America), and the Santa Lucia Estuary (South Africa). The goal is to estimate future changes in forcing variables (e.g., sea level rise, wave climate, river discharge, tides), implement them in process-based models (coupled SWAN and Delft3D), and identify changes in the dynamics of both systems by comparing present and future state simulations.
This thesis develops a replicable and flexible methodology that can be used as a systematic tool to assess the impacts of climate change on the overall dynamics of tidal inlet systems. A novel approach (copula analysis) was used to derive the wave climate implemented in Delft3D, which was then qualitatively validated for both sites. Model results were used to compare changes to inlet stability, inlet geometry, and sediment pathways for present and future hydrodynamic conditions.
Results show that sea level rise is the primary contributor to the overall morphodynamics at both sites, whereas changes in wave direction strongly impact the rate of inlet migration. Other changes (e.g., significant wave height, wave period, and river discharge) play a secondary role in the dynamics of both systems. Comparisons with previous studies suggest that wave direction impacts each system differently. These impacts must be specifically addressed for each tidal inlet, as the results from one site should not be used to determine a general behavior for the assessment of CC impacts in tidal inlet systems.