Risk Analysis of Earthquake-Induced Submarine Slope Failure
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Abstract
This paper presents an offshore risk analysis in a systematic manner to assess the influence of earthquake-induced submarine slope failure on offshore structures. The risk analysis is carried out for the future development of a natural gas field in deep waters in the south part of the Gulf of Mexico. The study accounts for all the elements in the conventional risk formulation: Risk = Hazard × Consequences. The hazard analysis was performed in two steps: first estimating the probability of earthquake-induced slope failure by using the slope failure fragility curve approach; and second estimating the probability of failed sediments impacting offshore structures by running debris flow numerical simulations in a Monte Carlo method framework. The consequences were estimated focused solely on the damage to offshore structures, in monetary terms, and the development of vulnerability curves as function of the velocity and the thickness of the moving mud flow that may evolve from the failed sediments.