基于注意力机制的城市轨道交通网络级多步短时客流时空综合预测模型

Abstract

Accurate and reliable short- term passenger flow prediction can support operations and decision-making of the URT system from multiple perspectives. In this paper, we propose a URT multi- step short- term passenger flow prediction model at the network level based on a Transformer-based LSTM network, Depth-wise Attention Block, and CNN network, named as Spatial- Temporal Integrated Prediction Model (STIPM). The STIPM comprises three branches. The first branch takes time- series inflow data as input, and a Transformer-based LSTM network is selected to extract the temporal correlations. The second one takes timestep- based OD data as input, and many spatial and temporal features are captured using Depth- wise Attention Blocks. Meanwhile, timestep- based OD data can better include inter- station relations and global information. The third branch takes Point of Interest data (POI) as input and CNN network is utilized for spatiotemporal features extraction, which can also become the bridge between spatial and temporal features. Moreover, the“Multi-inputmulti- output Strategy”for multi- step prediction is used to obtain a longer prediction period and more detailed information under a relatively high forecasting accuracy. The STIPM is applied to two large- scale real- world datasets from the URT system, and the obtained prediction results are compared with ten baselines and four variants from itself, in which STIPM model achieves highest prediction accuracy indicated by RMSE, MAE, and WMAPE evaluations, which demonstrates the superiority and robustness of the STIPM.