A probabilistic framework for the quantification of vegetation effects on the failure mechanisms of Dutch river dikes
L.M. Wopereis (TU Delft - Civil Engineering & Geosciences)
J.P. Aguilar Lopez – Mentor (TU Delft - Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk)
R.C. Lanzafame – Mentor (TU Delft - Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk)
D. Kurowicka – Mentor (TU Delft - Applied Probability)
Ellis Penning – Mentor
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Abstract
River floods are becoming increasingly devastating because of climate change (more frequent and extreme rainfall), population growth and the increasing economic importance of river basins. This situation requires maintenance and strengthening of flood-defence systems.
Adding certain types of vegetation at precise locations for their positive impact may be a cheaper, more flexible, and more environment-friendly way to strengthen dikes than the traditional increase in height. However, this nature-based (NB) option is not yet widely implemented due to the lack of precise knowledge of the potential of vegetation effects and their uncertainty.
This study uses a probabilistic method to better understand the effects of vegetation by including vegetation in the computation of the failure probabilities of Dutch river dikes. A framework was established to combine all these vegetation effects simultaneously in the computation of the total failure probability, considering different magnitudes of each effect. This enables the consideration of a wide range of vegetation scenarios, from which conclusions were drawn.
Overall, this thesis provides a useful and versatile tool for assessing the influence of vegetation on dikes that has a lot of potential and can be easily enhanced in the future.