Order dispatching in ride-sharing platform under travel time uncertainty

Abstract

In this paper, we study a one-to-one matching ride-sharing problem to save the travellers' total travel time considering travel time uncertainty. Unlike the existing work where the uncertainty set is assumed to be known or roughly estimated, in this work, we propose a learning-based robust optimization framework to handle the issue properly. Specifically, we assume the travel time varies in an uncertainty set which is predicted by a machine learning approach- ARIMA using travel time historical data, the predicted uncertainty set then serves as the input parameter for the robust optimization model. To evaluate the proposed approach, we conduct a group of numerical experiments based on New York taxi trip record data sets. The results show that our proposed data-driven robust optimization approach outperforms the robust optimization model with a given uncertainty set in terms of total travel time savings. Further, the proposed approach can improve the travel time savings up to 112.8%, and 34% by average. Most importantly, our proposed approach is capable of handling the uncertainty in a more effective way when the uncertainty degrees become high.