Techno-economic Analysis of Sustainable Aviation Fuels by Using Traffic Forecasts and Fuel Price Projections
A Case Study at TUI Aviation
K.J.P. van Bentem (TU Delft - Civil Engineering & Geosciences)
Bert Van van Wee – Graduation committee member (TU Delft - Transport and Logistics)
J.A. Annema – Graduation committee member (TU Delft - Transport and Logistics)
M.B. Duinkerken – Graduation committee member (TU Delft - Transport Engineering and Logistics)
Tom Sutherland – Coach (TUI Airlines Nederland B.V.)
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Abstract
This research focused on the techno-economic implementation of Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF). Carbon reduction in commercial aviation could be done via four key levers; technological efficiency improvement (aircraft or engine replacement), operational efficiency improvement (air traffic management or airline operations), the implementation of Sustainable Aviation Fuels, and carbon offsetting by using economic measures. This research was done by doing a case study at TUI Aviation, thus using their demand data. After developing a traffic forecast and resulting CO2 forecast, the four levers were used to limit carbon emissions toward a net-zero emission scenario in 2050. The 22 ASTM certified SAF alternatives were tested against carbon mitigation power and costs, the latter being determined by using the experience curve theory of decreased prices with increased cumulative production. This results in the FT-SPK fuel made from Municipal Solid Waste as being the most attractive SAF alternative with a Net Present Value of 875 million USD. However, it is recommended to include extra fuel alternatives in this research in the future. For example, Power-to-Liquid fuels will have great potential, but are not certified yet.