Techno-economic Analysis of Sustainable Aviation Fuels by Using Traffic Forecasts and Fuel Price Projections

A Case Study at TUI Aviation

Master thesis (2021)

Authors

K.J.P. van Bentem Civil Engineering & Geosciences

Contributors

G.P. van Wee Transport and Logistics - TPM (supervisor 2)
J.A. Annema Transport and Logistics - TPM (supervisor 2)
M.B. Duinkerken Transport Engineering and Logistics - Mechanical, Maritime and Materials Engineering (supervisor 2)
Tom Sutherland (coach)
Faculty
Civil Engineering & Geosciences
Copyright: © 2021 Koen van Bentem
Traffic forecasting Aviation Sustainable mobility Cost-Benefit Analysis Aircraft emissions Experience curve Environmental economics
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Published Date

26-02-2021

Language

English

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Faculty

Civil Engineering & Geosciences

Abstract

This research focused on the techno-economic implementation of Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF). Carbon reduction in commercial aviation could be done via four key levers; technological efficiency improvement (aircraft or engine replacement), operational efficiency improvement (air traffic management or airline operations), the implementation of Sustainable Aviation Fuels, and carbon offsetting by using economic measures. This research was done by doing a case study at TUI Aviation, thus using their demand data. After developing a traffic forecast and resulting CO2 forecast, the four levers were used to limit carbon emissions toward a net-zero emission scenario in 2050. The 22 ASTM certified SAF alternatives were tested against carbon mitigation power and costs, the latter being determined by using the experience curve theory of decreased prices with increased cumulative production. This results in the FT-SPK fuel made from Municipal Solid Waste as being the most attractive SAF alternative with a Net Present Value of 875 million USD. However, it is recommended to include extra fuel alternatives in this research in the future. For example, Power-to-Liquid fuels will have great potential, but are not certified yet.