Game over for automated vehicles?

Abstract

Background

Trials with automated mini buses (AV shuttles) are going on in many cities. According to game-theoretic reasoning, in mixed traffic normal road users will soon take advantage of the defensive driving style of the AV shuttles, and may eventually totally block their accessibility (Camara et al., 2018; Michieli & Badia, 2018; Millard-Ball, 2018). So far there are few studies on the interaction between AV shuttles and ordinary road users. The present study is probably the first to look at changes in interaction patterns with AV shuttles in real traffic over time, making it possible to empirically test the predictions based on game theory.

Method

In order to study ordinary road users’ interaction with AV shuttles, and whether interaction patterns change over time, evidence from two Norwegian pilots at Kongsberg and in Oslo, have been collected. Field surveys and video recordings have been conducted at both places and repeated over several months to measure any changes in behaviour.

Results

Results from survey analyses show very small changes in pedestrians’ interactions with the AV shuttles over time, whereas cyclists seem increasingly to take advantage of the defensive driving style of the AV shuttles. Video data will be analyzed during spring 2020 and results will be presented at the conference. Possible mechanisms producing the differences between cyclists’ and pedestrians’ interactions with the AV shuttles, will also be presented and discussed at the conference.

Conclusions

Survey results show that pedestrian interaction with AV shuttles do not confirm with the hypothesis based on game theoretic modelling. However, cyclist interaction seems to change over time in line with the game theoretic expectations.