Effects of Climate Change on Drinking Water Distribution Network Integrity
Predicting Pipe Failure Resulting from Differential Soil Settlement
B.A. Wols
K. van Daal
P. van Thienen
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Abstract
Climate change may result in lowering of ground water levels and consolidation of the soil. The resulting (differential) settlements, associated with soil property transitions, may damage underground pipe infrastructure, such as drinking water distribution sys- tems. The work presented here offers an approach for the prediction of pipe failure under conditions of differential settlement. A probabilistic model for pipe failure has been implemented in a geographical information system (GIS) environment. The GIS tool uses information on the drinking water distribution system, soil properties and expected soil settlements to predict pipe bending stresses in a probabilistic framework, so that the vulnerability of a drinking water distribution network towards soil settlements can be assessed. This model approach allows water companies to perform a quick scan of their drinking water distribution network integrity towards different expected climate scenarios