Visioning future transport systems with an integrated robust and generative framework

Abstract

Visioning has been widely adopted in transport planning as a method to support explorations of possible future transport systems over a long time horizon. There are vast variations in how visioning is applied but given a clear association between visions and the long-time perspective, it is unclear how these processes handle uncertainty surrounding the resulting visions and their implementation. This study reflects on previous visioning processes by systematically reviewing the scientific publications on participatory visioning in passenger transport. The review identifies possible improvements contributing to a systematic approach that produces concrete visions and actions to deal with uncertainties surrounding the vision and its implementation. We address these improvements by proposing a robust and generative visioning framework, which combines the generative approach in Appreciative Inquiry (Ai) and methods to handle uncertainty in the Dynamic Adaptive Planning (DAP). The framework is illustrated in a case study of the Southwest area of the Dutch city of the Hague that involved over 50 participants in a survey and two workshops. The process produced a vision for the mobility system of the area, a set of measures to realize it (i.e. pathways), and concrete actions to ensure that the pathways are robust against different futures that can affect the implementation. The approach can help planners, policymakers, and researchers in designing a visioning process that helps participants to better appreciate the temporal dimension of the visioning process and improves their awareness regarding the need to safeguard policy interventions against possible impacts of (un)certain future events.