Model-based design of drought-related climate adaptation strategies using nature-based solutions

Abstract

This article presents a methodology for designing and assessing drought-related Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) adaptation strategies on a catchment scale using an integrated hydrological model that simultaneously provides surface water and groundwater results. The Aa of Weerijs catchment, shared between Belgium and the Netherlands, was used for demonstrating the methodology. The model was developed with the MIKE SHE modelling system, using a combination of globally available and local data. Different types of NBS (ditch blocking, infiltration ponds, wetland restoration and heathland restoration) were combined spatially to develop two adaptation strategies with different spatial extents. Their design was based on drought-related Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) linked with water management actions by key stakeholders (bans on water extraction), both on the surface and groundwater. The KPI values were obtained by model simulations under current and future climate conditions, and with the implementation of the two adaptation strategies. The results show that the strategy with a larger spatial extent gives better KPI values, almost eliminating days with no groundwater availability in the downstream part of the catchment, reaching the goal of increased infiltration and groundwater recharge. Additionally, our results show that there is significant accumulation of positive effects from upstream to downstream.