Hydrogen fuel-cell heavy duty trucks for long haul transport in the EU; conditions for a successful implementation

Abstract

It is uncertain which drivetrain will be used for future long haul transport of goods in the EU. One of the possible technologies is the use of hydrogen fuel cell heavy-duty trucks (HFC-HDTs). This research focuses on success and failure factors which influence the successful implementation of HFC-HDTs in the EU and aims to achieve an overview of certain conditions necessary to implement HFC-HDTs. In order to achieve an overview of these factors, a framework has been developed in which aspects are represented regarding current developments, technological factors, societal and economic factors, and political factors. To further test the framework, the learning curve equation is used to calculate different scenarios based on learning rates and perspectives based on a set of assumption deducted from the developed framework. The findings from this research show that there are absolute necessary conditions which need to be met in order to implement HFC-HDTs even on a smaller scale. These conditions mainly relate to technological factors. Firstly, the HFC-HDTs need to be available for operators to purchase. Secondly, the availability of hydrogen to be used as a fuel needs to be sufficient. Lastly, there needs to be a sufficient refuelling infrastructure along major transport routes and transport/storage for these locations. However, these basic necessary conditions are not enough to fully implement the HFC-HDTs in the EU. The findings and calculations show that the future implementation of HFC-HDTs is highly dependent on policies and regulations set by the EU and its member states. These policies and regulations should focus on taxing emission emitting transport modes and coupling these proceeds to the purchase of HFC-HDTs. Furthermore, additional incentives such as subsidies on hydrogen itself and beneficial circumstances for the construction of refuelling station should be put into place in order ensure a working HFC-HDT system. These conditions will incentivise operators to opt for HFC-HDTs instead of other alternatives which would create a positive feedback loop on the further development of HFC-HDTs and its accompanying infrastructure.