Stability and Comparability of European wind–wave Climate Regimes for Offshore Renewable Energy

Abstract

In planning offshore renewable energy systems—such as offshore wind farms, wave energy devices, or hybrid installations—engineers and policymakers intervene in marine environments governed by coupled wind and wave processes. These processes respond to atmospheric forcing on short time scales (days, seasons) as well as on longer climate time scales (years, decades). For instance, a change in large-scale atmospheric circulation can immediately alter regional wind fields, which in turn modifies wave generation and propagation. Over longer periods, such changes can reorganise spatial patterns of wind–wave variability and affect the persistence and stability of offshore energy resources. The success of climate-informed offshore development therefore depends, at least partially, on our ability to predict how coupled wind–wave systems respond to changes in atmospheric forcing. We essentially aim to answer questions such as: how stable are wind–wave conditions across seasons and years? Which patterns persist, and which reorganise under climate variability? How reliably can climate models represent the wind–wave regimes that underpin offshore wind, wave, and hybrid energy potential, and how may these regimes reorganise under near-term climate forcing in the coming decades? ....