Resilience in the Tin supply chain

From the COVID-19 crisis to future developments

Master thesis (2021)

Authors

F. Galimberti Technology, Policy and Management

Contributors

Benjamin Sprecher Universiteit Leiden (supervisor 1)
Y. Yang Team Yongxiang Yang - Mechanical, Maritime and Materials Engineering (supervisor 2)
Faculty
Technology, Policy and Management
Copyright: © 2021 Federico Galimberti
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Published Date

31-03-2021

Language

English

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Faculty

Technology, Policy and Management

Abstract

Resilience has been gaining importance as a key element that prepares the supply chains to respond after disruptions. In this thesis, the material supply chain resilience framework is used to study the supply chain of tin before and during the disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Tin is a small-scale market compared to other major metals but its importance is increasing thanks to its possible applications in the next-generation lithium-ion batteries, fundamental for the energy transition. Besides, Tin is one of the main elements used in the semiconductor industry which is at the centre of the trade war between the US and China. In order to increase its potential and be used in “next-gen” batteries, tin supply chains must show resilience. Using qualitative and quantitative data and modelling, this paper aimed to explore the resilience of the supply chain of tin. The research showed that Tin demonstrated considerable resilience during the COVID-19 disruptions ,thanks to the semiconductors and Chinese demand, both of which increased during the second quarter of 2020. Currently, almost half of tin production goes to solders, which explains the high dependency between the tin market and the semiconductor market. China is the biggest producer and consumer of tin, which makes the demand for tin dependent on Chinese demand. The analysis of the resilience mechanisms showed stockpiling and diversity of supply are integrated into the supply chain but their contribution to resilience remain low. Substitution could not be considered a resilience mechanism due to the lack of substitutes for tin solders. The resilience mechanisms would gain importance in the future of tin if it would be used in new technologies. The model presented in this thesis estimates the amount of tin that will be used by 2030. With this in mind, recycling of tin must be increased to support the future demand. Consequently, Governments and companies must invest in technologies in order to increase the recycling of E-waste. Lastly, the development of the relations between the US and China will also interest the tin supply chain. In this regard, three different sub scenarios are analysed: complete decoupling, partial decoupling, and no-decoupling.