Monte Carlo analysis of uncertainties in the Netherlands greenhouse gas emission inventory for 1990-2004

Abstract

This paper presents an assessment of the value added of a Monte Carlo analysis of the uncertainties in the Netherlands inventory of greenhouse gases over a Tier 1 analysis. It also examines which parameters contributed the most to the total emission uncertainty and identified areas of high priority for the further improvement of the accuracy and quality of the inventory. The Monte Carlo analysis resulted in an uncertainty range in total GHG emissions of 4.1% in 2004 and 5.4% in 1990 (with LUCF) and 5.3% (in 1990) and 3.9% (in 2004) for GHG emissions without LUCF. Uncertainty in the trend was estimated at 4.5%. The values are in the same order of magnitude as those estimated in the Tier 1. The results show that accounting for correlation among parameters is important, and for the Netherlands inventory it has a larger impact on the uncertainty in the trend than on the uncertainty in the total GHG emissions. The main contributors to overall uncertainty are found to be related to N2O emissions from agricultural soils, the N2O implied emission factors of Nitric Acid Production, CH4 from managed solid waste disposal on land, and the implied emission factor of CH4 from manure management from cattle.