Order Disruption and Resilience of Cyber-Physical Systems of a Metropolitan Region

Abstract

Regional managers require adaptive strategies to enhance resilience against severe weather events and disasters. Critical infrastructure sectors are interconnected such that disruptions in one sector to cascade through others, exposing system-wide vulnerabilities. This paper presents a scenario-based framework that integrates network theory and scenario analysis to assess resilience within regional infrastructure networks of a metropolitan region. The framework quantifies disruptions in system orders by evaluating how critical infrastructure sector priorities change across scenarios. Scenarios are various timeframes following or preceding a disruptive event, from a few hours to a few months. Inserting features of a large flood in Nashville, TN, USA, as a case study, the analysis examines how disruptions alter the order of sectors and interdependencies, identifying which sectors are most vulnerable to cascading failures, as well as those with greater stability. Results indicate that sectors such as healthcare, communications, and energy remain consistently critical to resilience of the cyber-physical system, while transportation and water services show higher sensitivity to disruption. By assessing the disruptiveness of each scenario, this framework provides a greater understanding of system dynamics and supports strategic resilience planning by prioritizing sectors critical to regional stability.