Closing the emissions gap: sectoral emission reduction potentials in 2030 for the G20 and world regions

Abstract

In this thesis the goal is to determine the mitigation potential, below 100$ per ton of CO2e, of nine climate mitigation measures in 2030 for the G20 and world regions across six sectors. The mitigation potentials for these measures was determined using a bottom-up approach utilizing recent literature, and where needed by up-scaling found results along assumed variables. The determined mitigation potentials are compared with the emissions gaps between a current policy scenario and scenarios limiting temperature rise below 1.5 and 2 degrees compared to pre-industrial levels. These emission gaps are estimated to be 18-22 GtCO2e, and 24-27 GtCO2e, respectively. Further, the found mitigation potentials are compared with the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the Paris climate accord of the G20 member states. It was found that the global mitigation potential for the nine treated measures in 2030 is 19-27 GtCO2e. Subsequently, it is concluded that the emission gaps can both be closed if the mitigation potentials for the nine measures are realized, and that the NDCsof the G20 countries can be achieved in 2030 by a large margin. Finally, it is concluded that the G20 has a mitigation potential of 14.4-20 GtCO2e in 2030 and thus has a significant share in the envisioned mitigation potential.