Quantification of parameter and calibration uncertainty in morphological modelling
J. Kroon (TU Delft - Coastal Engineering)
M.A. de Schipper (TU Delft - Coastal Engineering)
S.G.J. Aarninkhof (TU Delft - Coastal Engineering)
More Info
expand_more
Other than for strictly personal use, it is not permitted to download, forward or distribute the text or part of it, without the consent of the author(s) and/or copyright holder(s), unless the work is under an open content license such as Creative Commons.
Abstract
There are different sources of uncertainty in morphological modeling on time scales of years. The standard deterministic modelling approach does not provide any information on the amount of uncertainty contained in a forecast. This lack of information could provide a false sense of accuracy and skill. Quantitative insight in these prediction uncertainties is therefore of crucial importance for decision making in coastal engineering and management.