Diverging paths
AI exposure and employment across European regions
Dario Guarascio (Sapienza University of Rome)
Jelena Reljic (Sapienza University of Rome)
Roman Stöllinger (TU Delft - Economics of Technology and Innovation)
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Abstract
This study explores exposure to artificial intelligence (AI) technologies and employment patterns in Europe. First, we provide a thorough mapping of European regions focusing on the structural factors—such as sectoral specialisation, R&D capacity, productivity and workforce skills—that may shape diffusion as well as economic and employment effects of AI. To capture these differences, we conduct a cluster analysis which group EU regions in four distinct clusters: high-tech service and capital centres, advanced manufacturing core, southern and eastern periphery. We then discuss potential employment implications of AI in these regions, arguing that while regions with strong innovation systems may experience employment gains as AI complements existing capabilities and production systems, others are likely to face structural barriers that could eventually exacerbate regional disparities in the EU, with peripheral areas losing further ground.
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