Analyzing railway disruptions and their impact on delayed traffic in Chinese high-speed railway

Abstract

Chinese high-speed railways faced large development in the recent years. Their performance is still confronted with disruptions, which impact the traffic and the passengers. With the aim to better understand the influences of the sources of disruptions, we study the statistical characteristics of the causes of disruptions and delayed traffic. We use maximum likelihood estimation to determine the probability density distribution of the different disruption source. A zero-truncated negative binomial distribution model is then developed to link the sources of disruptions and the amount of delayed traffic. This is important to determine the probability and the impact of disruptions sources. We can then suggest which disruption sources should be tackled in order to reduce impact and probability of disruptions.