Simulation and control of regional construction land expansion incorporating carbon emissions

Abstract

As a major contributor to carbon emissions among various land-use types, the expansion and spatial distribution of construction land are critical factors in regional carbon management strategies. Although considerable research has independently examined construction land growth control and regional carbon emission assessments, few studies have integrated these aspects to guide construction land expansion within the framework of carbon peaking strategies. This study proposes an innovative framework that integrates carbon emission considerations into the management of regional construction land expansion. Using Changsha City as a case study, this research analyzes the spatiotemporal dynamics of construction land expansion and associated carbon emissions from 1990 to 2020, exploring their interdependencies. To project future trends, three scenarios—natural growth, high-emission expansion, and low-emission development—were developed to simulate the impacts of construction land changes on carbon emissions by 2030. The study evaluates the carbon emission consequences of urban expansion and proposes mitigation strategies within a low-carbon development framework. The findings indicate that: (1) From 1990 to 2020, construction land in Changsha City expanded by 660.24 km², primarily encroaching upon adjacent cultivated and forested lands. During the same period, carbon emissions increased by 1.3963 × 10⁸ t, showing a strong positive correlation with construction land expansion; (2) By 2030, carbon emissions are projected to reach 2.396 × 10⁸ t, 2.582 × 10⁸ t, and 1.639 × 10⁸ t under the natural growth, high-emission, and low-emission scenarios, respectively, reflecting increases of 53.21%, 65.11%, and 4.81% relative to 2020 levels; (3) Under both the natural growth and high-emission scenarios, construction land expansion is likely to intensify its adverse impact on the regional ecosystem, thereby reducing ecological stability. In contrast, the low-emission development scenario is projected to promote significant improvements in ecosystem health and resilience. This study offers critical insights for territorial spatial planning and construction land management within the context of the dual-carbon strategy, presenting a viable pathway for reconciling land expansion with ecological sustainability.