Ex-ante assessment of social acceptance of sustainable heating systems in Amsterdam South East using Cross-Impact Balance analysis

Abstract

The municipality of Amsterdam plans to transition away from its reliance on fossil fuel-based energy sources for residential heating by 2040. The municipality has laid out a roadmap that details possibilities for sustainable heating on a per-neighborhood basis. One neighborhood of particular interest is Geerdinkhof in Amsterdam South East. There are three long-term sustainable transitions that can take place within Geerdinkhof; a high temperature (HT) district heating network, collectively-owned options and heating options per individual household. The present research refers to citizen social acceptance of these long-term transitions for sustainable heating. It would be ideal to address the possible lack of social acceptance for a new technology before it is implemented. It is argued that social acceptance issues can best be anticipated by understanding the underlying value conflicts associated with technologies. However, literature indicates that very few tools have been implemented for ex-ante analysis of social acceptance. It is argued that the consequences of value conflicts on a future lack of social acceptance can be anticipated by identifying scenarios of value change. In order to best balance the need for both quantitative and qualitative scenario analysis, Cross-Impact Balances (CIB) was chosen as the methodology execute this thesis. This method that can construct qualitative and semi-quantitative scenarios systematically. The values observed in this thesis regard affordability and comfort, which are at the forefront of the transition for citizens in Geerdinkhof. The analysis produced a total of 23 internally consistent scenarios of value change. This thesis defines “internally consistent” scenarios of value change as a reflection of how the prioritization of values shift over time, considering the mathematically plausible combinations of CIB calculations. Considering the heavy work-load to analyze each scenario individually, the scenarios were clustered into seven broad scenario clusters based on how these values may trend. Sensitivity analysis indicated that there is no extreme divergence in the number of consistent scenarios discovered. For each scenario cluster, the most fitting of the three possible heating initiatives in Geerdinkhof were assessed. Moreover, analysis indicated that a HT district heating network was the most fitting heating initiative as a result of the most commonly found scenario. However, it cannot be conclusively stated that this initiative is the most suitable for Geerdinkhof, given that the least commonly found scenario also suits HT district heating. Recommendations can be provided on the best possible procedure that the municipality can take in order to facilitate more socially accepted heating initiatives. Ex-ante assessment of social acceptance is dependent on observing possible trends in neighborhood and external factors. It is recommended that the municipality assess the current trends in these factors, and compare them to the findings in the present research. It is important to note that citizens would also need to demonstrate the need for sustainable initiatives. Another recommendation would be for the municipality to continue to emphasize the importance and urgency of the impending transition, for example through information campaigns or neighborhood gatherings.