Runup Modeling in Low-Data Coral Reef Environments
Implications for Nesting Sea Turtles
Daniel Dédina (Student TU Delft)
Jakob C. Christiaanse (TU Delft - Coastal Engineering)
Floortje Roelvink (Deltares)
Ahmed I.A. Elshinnawy (Tanta University)
Robert T. McCall (Deltares)
Ad Reniers (TU Delft - Environmental Fluid Mechanics)
Carlos Duarte (King Abdullah University of Science and Technology)
José A.A. Antolinez (TU Delft - Coastal Engineering)
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Abstract
Sea turtles are key species in many coastal ecosystems worldwide, particularly coral reef and seagrass habitats. Yet, six of seven species are endangered. Their nests, which incubate in beach sand and rely on specific climatic conditions for egg viability, face significant threats from inundation, for example through wave runup. This paper examines a method to rapidly predict wave runup in low-data coral reef environments, and the implications thereof on the inundation of sea turtle nests. The study uses two metamodels, BEWARE-2 and HyCReWW, to predict wave runup at Ras Baridi, Saudi Arabia, a key nesting site of the Red Sea green turtle population. The models were used to analyze runup events and inundation durations and provide a first estimate of a safe nesting elevation. Despite data limitations, the study provides valuable insights for coastal managers to protect sea turtle nests, suggesting that a 5-year return period runup elevation could serve as a threshold for nest relocation. However, the findings also highlight the importance of more accurate hydrodynamic predictions and the need for in-situ data to validate models and improve conservation strategies.
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