Impact of Extreme Climate Events on Community Planning and Flood Risk Management in Giant Panda National Park

Abstract

Extreme rainfall events intensify flood-related hazards in mountainous national parks and their surrounding communities, where complex terrain and coupled hazard processes create major challenges for spatial risk management. This study focuses on the Tangjiahe district of the Giant Panda National Park and develops an integrated framework for flood-related multi-hazard identification and zoning. The 100-year flood process was simulated using Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC-RAS), runoff retention was assessed using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model, and slope stability risk zoning was conducted using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Based on multi-source spatial overlay, Integrated Flood-Related Multi-Hazard Risk Zoning was generated. Spatial statistical analyses, including Global Moran’s I, Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA), and Getis-Ord Gi*, supported the identification of clustered high-risk areas and hotspot zones. In parallel, Disaster Prevention and Control Zoning was established, classifying the study area into multiple management-oriented zones to support differentiated spatial governance and targeted management. The proposed framework provides a practical approach for integrating multi-hazard processes into spatial planning and disaster risk management in mountainous protected areas.