Statistical post processing of extreme weather forecasts
Jasper Velthoen (TU Delft - Statistics)
G. Jongbloed – Promotor (TU Delft - Statistics)
Juanjuan Cai – Copromotor (TU Delft - Statistics)
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Abstract
In this thesis we develop several statistical methods to estimate high conditional quantiles to use for statistical post-processing of weather forecasts. We propose methodologies that combine theory from extreme value statistics and machine learning algorithms in order to estimate high conditional quantiles in large covariate spaces. In applications of weather forecasting we show improved predictive skill for precipitation forecasts.