When will autonomous ships arrive?
A technological forecasting perspective
Carmen Kooij (TU Delft - Ship Design, Production and Operations)
Alina Colling (TU Delft - Ship Design, Production and Operations)
Chris Benson (TU Delft - Ship Design, Production and Operations, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Air Force Office of Scientific Research)
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Abstract
Autonomous ships have received significant attention in recent years. However, they are not yet widely adopted in the maritime industry yet. A wide range of predictions have been made about when the technological change will occur. This paper analyses technologies that are critical to autonomous shipping and forecasts a range of times when they will reach technical and economic viability. The researched technologies include data transfer, navigation, cargo handling, fuel cells and diesel engines. The results indicate that the GPS navigation precision required for autonomous shipping is not yet technically feasible and the expected feasibility time frame is between 2030 and 2058. The remaining technologies all show technological feasibility, but not yet economic viability. The forecasted range for economic viability of data transfer is a narrow range of 2024-2025, while cost of automated cargo handling will reach the current expense levels somewhere between 2036 and 2101.