Physically-based landslide prediction over a large region

Scaling low-resolution hydrological model results for high-resolution slope stability assessment

Journal article (2020)

Authors

S. Wang Water Resources - CEG , Hohai University
Ke Zhang Hohai University
Ludovicus P.H. van Beek Universiteit Utrecht
X. Tian Water Resources - CEG
T.A. Bogaard Water Resources - CEG
Research Group
Water Resources (CEG) (TU Delft)
Copyright: © 2020 S. Wang, Ke Zhang, Ludovicus P.H. van Beek, X. Tian, T.A. Bogaard
DOI
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.104607
Scaling Hydrological model Infinite slope model Landslide prediction
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Published Date

2020

Language

English

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Faculty

Civil Engineering & Geosciences

Department

Water Management

Research Group

Water Resources

Abstract

Rainfall-triggered shallow landslides are widespread natural hazards around the world, causing many damages to human lives and property. In this study, we focused on predicting landslides in a large region by coupling a 1 km-resolution hydrological model and a 90 m-resolution slope stability model, where a downscaling method for soil moisture via topographic wetness index was applied. The modeled hydrological processes show generally good agreements with the observed discharges: relative biases and correlation coefficients at three validation stations are all <20% and >0.60, respectively. The derived scaling law for soil moisture allows for near-conservative downscaling of the original 1-km soil moisture to 90-m resolution for slope stability assessment. For landslide prediction, the global accuracy and true positive rate are 97.2% and 66.9%, respectively. This study provides an effective and computationally efficient coupling method to predict landslides over large regions in which fine-scale topographical information is incorporated.