Stochastic Beach Width Prediction at a Recently Nourished Beach

Master thesis (2019)

Authors

M.O. Enschedé Civil Engineering & Geosciences

Contributors

J. Kroon Coastal Engineering - CEG (supervisor 1)
S.G.J. Aarninkhof Coastal Engineering - CEG (supervisor 2)
M.A. de Schipper Coastal Engineering - CEG (supervisor 2)
Wiebke Jäger Royal Boskalis Westminster (supervisor 2)
O. Morales Napoles Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk - CEG (supervisor 2)
Faculty
Civil Engineering & Geosciences
Copyright: © 2019 Maurits Enschedé
Stochastic modelling XBeach Nourishment Hondsbossche dunes ARMA models Latin Hypercube
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Published Date

01-10-2019

Language

English

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Faculty

Civil Engineering & Geosciences

Abstract

This study examines a method for a stochastic beach width prediction with a process-based morphodynamic model. This is carried out by a case study at the Hondsbossche Dunes, after a beach nourishment in March 2018. Stochastic forcing conditions are generated for the location of the Hondsbossche Dunes. These stochastic forcing conditions consist of time series with significant wave heights, peak wave periods, wave directions, and water levels. The basis of the method for generating these stochastic forcing conditions are Autoregressive-Moving Average (ARMA) models. The morphological change of the beach width due to these stochastic forcing conditions is modelled using an XBeach model. This results in a range of the possible development of the beach width, with the probability of occurrence. With the method examined in this study, a more realistic idea of the possible future beach width development can be given.