An evaluation of suitable methods to deal with deep uncertainty caused by the energy transition in ship design

An evaluation of suitable methods to deal with deep uncertainty caused by the energy transition in ship design

Zwaginga, J.J. (TU Delft Ship Design, Production and Operations)
Pruyn, J.F.J. (TU Delft Ship Design, Production and Operations)

2022

The maritime energy transition presents deep uncertainties that are difficult to deal with in the current ship design process. Even though other fields have stressed using adaptive strategies and explorative methods to deal with deep uncertainty, it is rarely included in ship design. Therefore, this paper compares three applicable methods to investigate how such aspects could support the design process. Each method is found to offer specific improvements to decision making, but no separate method meets the established criteria to the desired degree. The methods are found to be complementary, and by developing a combined method for ship design, ships can be better prepared to deal with deep uncertainty.

Adaptability
Energy Transition
Ship Design
Sustainable Fuels
Uncertainty

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:1c92f837-d1fa-49c8-bf4a-902afaeb78b3

https://doi.org/10.5957/IMDC-2022-252

2023-07-01

SNAME 14th International Marine Design Conference, IMDC 2022, 2022-06-26 → 2022-06-30, Vancouver, Canada

Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository 'You share, we take care!' - Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.

Institutional Repository

conference paper

© 2022 J.J. Zwaginga, J.F.J. Pruyn