Rescaling climate-induced migration

Abstract

This thesis explores alternative spatial- and governance responses to deal with climate-induced migration as a result of slow-onset climate change in the southern California border region with Mexico. These responses will be specifically aimed to mitigate and adapt to a future that may see displacement as a result of changing environmental conditions. In order to do so, this project prioritizes an approach that addresses preparedness towards anticipating change as well as the scale- and temporal variability of the changing conditions and their impacts. This project uses Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) as a methodology to explore alternative future narratives that are geared towards mitigating and adapting to changing climate conditions. It defines concentrations of social- and locational vulnerability as a proxy to anticipate potential migration flows, displacement or trapped population. It then explores potentials for adaptation across scales, which are then used to formulate spatial- and policy actions. In doing this, the project looks specifically for synergies of actions that address the before defined vulnerabilities. The formulated actions are then sequenced into alternative narratives to show their impact for two different IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP’s). Finally, they are evaluated for their performance in addressing vulnerabilities related to climate-induced migration and for their applicability to the existing multi-scalar planning framework.